What has happened in the country's economy and what can we expect in the next quarter?

Three months into 2025, Guatemala presents a relatively positive economic outlook, although with areas of concern that could define the course of the second quarter. With projected growth of 4%, stable foreign investment figures, and increasing tax pressure, the country is proceeding cautiously in a still volatile global environment.

A start with a good economic pulse
During the first quarter of the year, Guatemala maintained the economic growth trend observed in previous years. According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Economy and projections from the World Bank, the country is on track for a solid 4% growth rate by the end of this year, above the Latin American average.

The dynamism in sectors such as agricultural exports, family remittances (which remain at record levels), and services has been key to keeping the economy moving. Remittances, in particular, have been a vital source of liquidity for thousands of Guatemalan households, injecting consumption into the domestic market.

Blocks, alerts, and lessons
However, the start of the year has not been without tension. In January and February, the country experienced various blockades on strategic routes and social protests that temporarily affected the distribution of goods and the pace of production. Although these actions were resolved without a prolonged shutdown, they sent a clear message: internal stability remains fragile, and governance will be a key factor in maintaining business and investor confidence.

Foreign investment in the spotlight
The government has set an ambitious target of $1.648 billion in foreign direct investment for 2025. Although the first part of the year has shown interest from sectors such as light manufacturing, technology, and logistics services, investors are demanding guarantees of legal security, institutional efficiency, and infrastructure improvements to finalize their commitment to the country.

What to expect for the second quarter
Looking ahead to the coming months, the economic outlook is moderately optimistic, provided that internal stability is maintained and concrete progress is made on issues such as:

• Tax reforms : The SAT (Tax Administration Service) has tightened its tax controls and plans to broaden its tax base. This could formalize the economy, but also put pressure on small businesses.
• Infrastructure and connectivity : The development of road and logistics projects will be key to improving the country's competitiveness in the region.
• Access to credit and support for SMEs : Financial programs focused on micro and small businesses are expected to be strengthened, as they are the engine of employment.

Guatemala enters the second quarter of 2025 with positive economic indicators, but with the need to strengthen its institutions, promote efficient public policies, and ensure an attractive environment for investment. The global context remains uncertain, but the country has the potential to turn challenges into opportunities if it maintains a balance between growth and social stability.